Nvidia Stock Could Move 7% After Earnings: What Traders Expect Ahead of May 28 Report
Nvidia (NVDA) is set to release its latest earnings report on May 28, and options markets are bracing for a potential 7.4% swing in the stock’s price the following day, according to Bloomberg data.
This expected move is lower than the average 11.3% swing Nvidia has seen after its last eight earnings reports, suggesting reduced volatility despite global trade and tech tensions.
What’s Driving Market Expectations?
The 7.4% swing estimate means the stock could rise or fall significantly on May 29. For instance, Nvidia could gain 5.4% and drop 2%, or drop 4% and rise 3.4% — all within the projected range.
In February, despite beating Wall Street expectations, Nvidia shares fell 8.5% after a weaker-than-expected gross margin forecast. During intraday trading, the stock fluctuated over 11%.
A Decade of Strong Returns
Despite recent market uncertainty, long-term holders of Nvidia stock have been rewarded. Yahoo Finance data shows that those who buy before earnings and hold for 12 months have seen median returns of nearly 120% over the past 10 years.
Pressures From AI, China, and Trump Policies
Nvidia heads into its earnings week after a volatile year. Key concerns include:
- Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s low-cost model, which has investors questioning the scalability of Big Tech’s AI investments.
- Microsoft’s potential slowdown in AI data center spending, raising concerns over demand for Nvidia’s chips.
- Trump administration trade tensions, including:
- Bans on Nvidia chip exports to China
- Global tariff threats
- Intensifying rivalry with Huawei
What’s Helping NVDA Ahead of Earnings?
Despite headwinds, several positive developments have lifted Nvidia shares recently:
- A temporary US-China trade truce
- Expansion into new markets like Saudi Arabia
- Trump’s repeal of restrictive Biden-era chip export policies
These factors have revived investor optimism, but whether that sentiment holds depends heavily on Nvidia’s May 28 report.
Conclusion:
With the AI boom maturing and geopolitical risks evolving, Nvidia’s Q1 earnings report will be a critical test for both the stock and the broader semiconductor sector. Traders are pricing in significant movement, but long-term investors will be watching for clarity on margins, AI demand, and global trade policy impact.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DH4nHyVtuQ4
